TL;DR Macro | Market intelligence for everyone

Market Snapshot

Open-market readings

S&P 500

7,801.58

▼ −0.1%vs. prior close

S&P 500, intraday, latest 7,801.58 as of Now
Observation 1	7731
Observation 2	7741
Observation 3	7751
Observation 4	7773.95
Observation 5	7818.93
Observation 6	7801.77
Observation 7	7765.36
Observation 8	7779
Observation 9	7794
Observation 10	7811.54
Observation 11	7807.24
Observation 12	7801.58

Sep 7Now

The S&P 500 tracks 500 large U.S. companies and is a broad gauge for retirement accounts. It hovered 0.1% below Monday's close as bank gains offset weakness in chipmakers.

Investors use it as a broad gauge of U.S. , and many retirement funds follow it. Its moves can affect account balances.

S&P Dow Jones Indices ↗

10-year Treasury yield

5.22%

▼ −0.02 pointsvs. prior close

10-year Treasury yield, intraday, latest 5.22% as of Now
Observation 1	4.98
Observation 2	5.02
Observation 3	5.1
Observation 4	5.18
Observation 5	5.23
Observation 6	5.29
Observation 7	5.27
Observation 8	5.22
Observation 9	5.23
Observation 10	5.24
Observation 11	5.22

Oct 7, 2025Now

The helps set long-term . It eased to 5.22%, a small reprieve for rate-sensitive loans, while remaining near a multi-decade high.

Lenders use it as a reference when pricing and business loans, connecting its direction with .

U.S. Treasury ↗The Associated Press ↗

Brent crude oil

$105.91

▼ −0.7%vs. prior close

Brent crude oil, intraday, latest $105.91 as of Now
Observation 1	103.62
Observation 2	103.21
Observation 3	101.44
Observation 4	99.37
Observation 5	101.94
Observation 6	100.31
Observation 7	100.58
Observation 8	104.3
Observation 9	102.5
Observation 10	104.72
Observation 11	106.65
Observation 12	105.91

Sep 7Now

is a global used to price fuel and shing inputs. It retreated 0.7% to $105.91, trimming Monday's jump but leaving energy costs elevated.

Sustained changes can reach gasoline, shing, airfares, and household budgets. The Associated Press linked the pullback with a quieter session after Monday's supply-driven jump.

CME Group Brent futures ↗The Associated Press ↗

Nasdaq Composite

27,211.98

▼ −0.1%vs. prior close

Nasdaq Composite, intraday, latest 27,211.98 as of Now
Observation 1	26797.54
Observation 2	26871.6
Observation 3	27190.86
Observation 4	27477.31
Observation 5	27599.79
Observation 6	27538.69
Observation 7	27193.34
Observation 8	27240
Observation 9	27310
Observation 10	27366.17
Observation 11	27245.9
Observation 12	27211.98

Sep 7Now

The Nasdaq Composite tracks thousands of listed companies and leans toward technology. It edged 0.1% lower as chip outweighed gains elsewhere.

Its technology concentration makes it especially relevant to growth-heavy .

Nasdaq Composite ↗

Dow Jones Industrial Average

51,879.24

▲ +0.1%vs. prior close

Dow Jones Industrial Average, intraday, latest 51,879.24 as of Now
Observation 1	51349.92
Observation 2	50906.05
Observation 3	50926.56
Observation 4	51176.96
Observation 5	51521.28
Observation 6	51179.87
Observation 7	51231.64
Observation 8	51360
Observation 9	51510
Observation 10	51654.95
Observation 11	51850.55
Observation 12	51879.24

Sep 7Now

The Dow tracks 30 large, established U.S. companies. It was nearly flat as stronger bank balanced declines in other blue-chip companies.

Because the is price-weighted, higher-priced exert more influence on its moves.

S&P Dow Jones Indices ↗

Expected volatility (VIX)

15.37

▲ +1.1%vs. prior close

Expected volatility (VIX), intraday, latest 15.37 as of Now
Observation 1	15.9
Observation 2	15.7
Observation 3	15.31
Observation 4	15.44
Observation 5	15.38
Observation 6	15.08
Observation 7	15.41
Observation 8	15.2
Observation 9	15.01
Observation 10	14.84
Observation 11	15.21
Observation 12	15.37

Sep 7Now

The estimates expected S&P 500 swings over the next month. It rose 1.1% to 15.37, a modest increase from Monday's low level.

Higher readings mean traders expect wider moves and can make more expensive.

Cboe VIX ↗

S&P 500

7,801.58

▼ −0.1%vs. prior close

S&P 500, intraday, latest 7,801.58 as of Now
Observation 1	7731
Observation 2	7741
Observation 3	7751
Observation 4	7773.95
Observation 5	7818.93
Observation 6	7801.77
Observation 7	7765.36
Observation 8	7779
Observation 9	7794
Observation 10	7811.54
Observation 11	7807.24
Observation 12	7801.58

Sep 7Now

The S&P 500 tracks 500 large U.S. companies and is a broad gauge for retirement accounts. It hovered 0.1% below Monday's close as bank gains offset weakness in chipmakers.

Investors use it as a broad gauge of U.S. , and many retirement funds follow it. Its moves can affect account balances.

S&P Dow Jones Indices ↗

10-year Treasury yield

5.22%

▼ −0.02 pointsvs. prior close

10-year Treasury yield, intraday, latest 5.22% as of Now
Observation 1	4.98
Observation 2	5.02
Observation 3	5.1
Observation 4	5.18
Observation 5	5.23
Observation 6	5.29
Observation 7	5.27
Observation 8	5.22
Observation 9	5.23
Observation 10	5.24
Observation 11	5.22

Oct 7, 2025Now

The helps set long-term . It eased to 5.22%, a small reprieve for rate-sensitive loans, while remaining near a multi-decade high.

Lenders use it as a reference when pricing and business loans, connecting its direction with .

U.S. Treasury ↗The Associated Press ↗

Brent crude oil

$105.91

▼ −0.7%vs. prior close

Brent crude oil, intraday, latest $105.91 as of Now
Observation 1	103.62
Observation 2	103.21
Observation 3	101.44
Observation 4	99.37
Observation 5	101.94
Observation 6	100.31
Observation 7	100.58
Observation 8	104.3
Observation 9	102.5
Observation 10	104.72
Observation 11	106.65
Observation 12	105.91

Sep 7Now

is a global used to price fuel and shing inputs. It retreated 0.7% to $105.91, trimming Monday's jump but leaving energy costs elevated.

Sustained changes can reach gasoline, shing, airfares, and household budgets. The Associated Press linked the pullback with a quieter session after Monday's supply-driven jump.

CME Group Brent futures ↗The Associated Press ↗

Nasdaq Composite

27,211.98

▼ −0.1%vs. prior close

Nasdaq Composite, intraday, latest 27,211.98 as of Now
Observation 1	26797.54
Observation 2	26871.6
Observation 3	27190.86
Observation 4	27477.31
Observation 5	27599.79
Observation 6	27538.69
Observation 7	27193.34
Observation 8	27240
Observation 9	27310
Observation 10	27366.17
Observation 11	27245.9
Observation 12	27211.98

Sep 7Now

The Nasdaq Composite tracks thousands of listed companies and leans toward technology. It edged 0.1% lower as chip outweighed gains elsewhere.

Its technology concentration makes it especially relevant to growth-heavy .

Nasdaq Composite ↗

Dow Jones Industrial Average

51,879.24

▲ +0.1%vs. prior close

Dow Jones Industrial Average, intraday, latest 51,879.24 as of Now
Observation 1	51349.92
Observation 2	50906.05
Observation 3	50926.56
Observation 4	51176.96
Observation 5	51521.28
Observation 6	51179.87
Observation 7	51231.64
Observation 8	51360
Observation 9	51510
Observation 10	51654.95
Observation 11	51850.55
Observation 12	51879.24

Sep 7Now

The Dow tracks 30 large, established U.S. companies. It was nearly flat as stronger bank balanced declines in other blue-chip companies.

Because the is price-weighted, higher-priced exert more influence on its moves.

S&P Dow Jones Indices ↗

Expected volatility (VIX)

15.37

▲ +1.1%vs. prior close

Expected volatility (VIX), intraday, latest 15.37 as of Now
Observation 1	15.9
Observation 2	15.7
Observation 3	15.31
Observation 4	15.44
Observation 5	15.38
Observation 6	15.08
Observation 7	15.41
Observation 8	15.2
Observation 9	15.01
Observation 10	14.84
Observation 11	15.21
Observation 12	15.37

Sep 7Now

The estimates expected S&P 500 swings over the next month. It rose 1.1% to 15.37, a modest increase from Monday's low level.

Higher readings mean traders expect wider moves and can make more expensive.

Cboe VIX ↗

U.S. stocks

Russell 2000

2,780.46

▼ −0.5%vs. prior reading

Russell 2000, daily, latest 2,780.46 as of Oct 13
Observation 1	2806.63
Observation 2	2832.9
Observation 3	2847.14
Observation 4	2806.98
Observation 5	2794.48
Observation 6	2780.46

EarlierOct 13

The Russell 2000 slipped 0.5% Tuesday morning. Its smaller U.S. companies are more exposed to domestic credit, wages, and than multinational giants.

Associated Press · US indexes ↗FTSE Russell · US index methodology ↗

International indices

DAX

25,259.90

▼ −0.07%vs. Oct 5 close

DAX, daily close, latest 25,259.90 as of Oct 6
Observation 1	25231.2
Observation 2	25254.21
Observation 3	25402.5
Observation 4	25104.38
Observation 5	24913.1
Observation 6	25277.68
Observation 7	25259.9

Oct 2Oct 6

Germany's DAX was nearly flat Tuesday. Its exporters, manufacturers, and banks connect European growth with from the United States and China.

Deutsche Börse · DAX ↗Börse Stuttgart · DAX/XDAX ↗

Nikkei 225

67,777.52

▼ −1.82%vs. Oct 5 close

Nikkei 225, daily close, latest 67,777.52 as of Oct 6
Observation 1	65018.95
Observation 2	64136.25
Observation 3	63923
Observation 4	63484.1
Observation 5	65481.27
Observation 6	66753.72
Observation 7	68956.72
Observation 8	68309.46
Observation 9	69946.86
Observation 10	70683.98
Observation 11	70035.7
Observation 12	69042.1
Observation 13	67777.52

Sep 23Oct 6

Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.8% as technology exporters weakened. The connects U.S. investors with chip , the yen, and Asian manufacturing.

Nikkei Indexes · Nikkei 225 ↗

KOSPI

6,035.35

▼ −5.46%vs. Oct 5 close

KOSPI, daily close, latest 6,035.35 as of Oct 6
Observation 1	6820.02
Observation 2	6835.8
Observation 3	6562.72
Observation 4	6579.48
Observation 5	6687.21
Observation 6	6995.39
Observation 7	6954.52
Observation 8	7051.64
Observation 9	7033.92
Observation 10	6909.91
Observation 11	6971.35
Observation 12	6941.39
Observation 13	6803.9
Observation 14	6625.93
Observation 15	6035.35

Sep 18Oct 6

South Korea's KOSPI sank 5.5% as semiconductor sold off. Its export concentration offers an early read on chip competition and global manufacturing .

Korea Exchange · KOSPI ↗KB Financial Group · index trend ↗

Rates

2-year Treasury yield

4.79%

▲ near flatvs. Oct 1 close

2-year Treasury yield, daily close, latest 4.79% as of Oct 2
Observation 1	4.39
Observation 2	4.43
Observation 3	4.56
Observation 4	4.63
Observation 5	4.65
Observation 6	4.67
Observation 7	4.74
Observation 8	4.67
Observation 9	4.76
Observation 10	4.76
Observation 11	4.71
Observation 12	4.85
Observation 13	4.87
Observation 14	4.81
Observation 15	4.92
Observation 16	4.89
Observation 17	4.88
Observation 18	4.78
Observation 19	4.83
Observation 20	4.76
Observation 21	4.78
Observation 22	4.8
Observation 23	4.787

Sep 7Oct 2

The two-year Treasury traded near 4.79% Tuesday. Markets compare it with policy and near-term .

FRED · DGS2 ↗

10-year minus 2-year yield spread

0.44percentage points

● little changedvs. Oct 2 close

10-year minus 2-year yield spread, daily close, latest 0.44 percentage points as of Oct 5
Observation 1	0.41
Observation 2	0.4
Observation 3	0.39
Observation 4	0.33
Observation 5	0.32
Observation 6	0.33
Observation 7	0.27
Observation 8	0.27
Observation 9	0.25
Observation 10	0.2
Observation 11	0.25
Observation 12	0.26
Observation 13	0.31
Observation 14	0.36
Observation 15	0.32
Observation 16	0.37
Observation 17	0.41
Observation 18	0.46
Observation 19	0.45
Observation 20	0.47
Observation 21	0.44

Sep 5Oct 5

The gap between ten-year and two-year held near 0.44 Tuesday. Banks and economists watch it for clues about credit and growth expectations.

FRED · T10Y2Y ↗

30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.40%

▲ +0.12percentage pointsvs. Oct 1 reading

30-year fixed mortgage rate, weekly, latest 7.40% as of Week of Oct 8
Observation 1	6.76
Observation 2	6.95
Observation 3	7.03
Observation 4	7.28
Observation 5	7.4

Sep 10Week of Oct 8

The latest weekly survey put the average rate at 7.40%. Higher financing costs reduce home affordability, monthly purchasing power, and across housing-related businesses.

Freddie Mac mortgage survey ↗

Exchange rates

Euro to dollar

$1.1188 per euro

▼ near flatvs. Oct 1 close

Euro to dollar, daily close, latest $1.1188 per euro as of Oct 2
Observation 1	1.1627
Observation 2	1.1627
Observation 3	1.1629
Observation 4	1.1604
Observation 5	1.1549
Observation 6	1.1542
Observation 7	1.1538
Observation 8	1.1479
Observation 9	1.1464
Observation 10	1.1469
Observation 11	1.1432
Observation 12	1.1394
Observation 13	1.1373
Observation 14	1.14
Observation 15	1.1367
Observation 16	1.1336
Observation 17	1.1345
Observation 18	1.1232
Observation 19	1.1259
Observation 20	1.1195
Observation 21	1.1208
Observation 22	1.1204
Observation 23	1.1188

Sep 7Oct 2

The euro traded near $1.1188 Tuesday. The pair affects travel, import prices, and the translated of U.S. companies doing business in Europe.

FRED · DEXUSEU ↗

Dollar to yen

¥158.03per dollar

▼ −0.2%vs. Oct 1 close

Dollar to yen, daily close, latest ¥158.03 per dollar as of Oct 2
Observation 1	154.24
Observation 2	153.5
Observation 3	154.06
Observation 4	153.71
Observation 5	154.42
Observation 6	155.11
Observation 7	155.08
Observation 8	155.85
Observation 9	156.87
Observation 10	157.46
Observation 11	157.55
Observation 12	158.3
Observation 13	158.92
Observation 14	157.18
Observation 15	157.44
Observation 16	157.5
Observation 17	157.25
Observation 18	157.63
Observation 19	157.81
Observation 20	158.06
Observation 21	158.17
Observation 22	158.35
Observation 23	158.03

Sep 7Oct 2

The dollar traded near ¥158.03 Tuesday. The pair links U.S.-Japan rate differences with cars, electronics, overseas earnings, and global funding trades.

FRED · DEXJPUS ↗

Pound to dollar

$1.3241per pound

▲ near flatvs. Oct 1 close

Pound to dollar, daily close, latest $1.3241 per pound as of Oct 2
Observation 1	1.3257
Observation 2	1.3212
Observation 3	1.3267
Observation 4	1.3196
Observation 5	1.3234
Observation 6	1.3197
Observation 7	1.3239
Observation 8	1.324
Observation 9	1.3241

Sep 28Oct 2

The pound traded near $1.3241 Tuesday. Sterling affects British travel, holdings, and the translated of U.S. companies earning pounds.

FRED · DEXUSUK ↗

Commodities

WTI crude oil

$92.44 per barrel

▼ −1.4%vs. prior reading

WTI crude oil, daily, latest $92.44 per barrel as of Oct 13
Observation 1	94.21
Observation 2	97.26
Observation 3	103.57
Observation 4	101.27
Observation 5	102.42
Observation 6	107.02
Observation 7	103.62
Observation 8	103.21
Observation 9	101.44
Observation 10	96.97
Observation 11	96.41
Observation 12	93.38
Observation 13	95.88
Observation 14	85.23
Observation 15	99.37
Observation 16	96.16
Observation 17	87.94
Observation 18	91.46
Observation 19	91
Observation 20	92.44

EarlierOct 13

WTI fell 1.4% to $92.44 Tuesday morning. As the U.S. , sustained moves can reach gasoline, freight, airline costs, and energy-company profits.

FRED · DCOILWTICO ↗

Natural gas

$3.18 per MMBtu

▲ +0.3%vs. Sep 28 close

Natural gas, daily close, latest $3.18 per MMBtu as of Sep 29
Observation 1	2.9
Observation 2	2.81
Observation 3	2.76
Observation 4	2.71
Observation 5	2.85
Observation 6	2.97
Observation 7	3
Observation 8	2.9
Observation 9	2.97
Observation 10	2.93
Observation 11	2.9
Observation 12	3.06
Observation 13	3
Observation 14	3.21
Observation 15	3.13
Observation 16	3.18
Observation 17	3.203
Observation 18	3.17
Observation 19	3.161
Observation 20	3.18

Sep 8Sep 29

Natural gas rose 0.3% to $3.18. It matters for household heating, electricity prices, fertilizer production, factories, and liquefied-natural-gas exporters.

FRED · DHHNGSP ↗

Copper

$6.74per pound

▼ −0.2%vs. prior reading

Copper, daily, latest $6.74 per pound as of Oct 13
Observation 1	5.84
Observation 2	6.01
Observation 3	6.29
Observation 4	6.55
Observation 5	6.679
Observation 6	6.7545
Observation 7	6.74

EarlierOct 13

Copper eased 0.2% to $6.74 per pound. Construction, power grids, vehicles, and electronics make it useful for reading global and future project costs.

FRED · PCOPPUSDM ↗

TL;DR Global

Policy

IMF Lifts World Growth Outlook

The IMF raised its 2026 world-growth outlook slightly and warned about debt and heavy AI investment. It expects global at 4.7% and China to grow 4.5% this year. Faster activity can help U.S. exporters, while debt and concentrated spending add market risk.

International Monetary Fund ↗Reuters ↗

Global markets

Korean and Japanese Stocks Slide

South Korea's KOSPI fell 5.5% and Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 1.8% as chip declined. Reports of progress by Chinese memory-chip makers challenged established producers. Asian markets offer an early read on supply and for parts used by U.S. technology companies.

Korea Exchange ↗Bank of Japan market information ↗

Trade

Visa Gets China Market Opening

China approved Visa to prepare a domestic card-clearing business in a vast payments market. Visa has one year to finish the setup before clearing local transactions. The opening could add U.S. and test commercial ties during wider tensions.

People's Bank of China ↗The Associated Press ↗

Next on TL;DRM

Historical relationship, not prediction.

OCT 148:30 AM ET

(CPI)

Tracks price changes for goods and services bought by households.

Prior: 3.4% year over year · BLS

If higher than expected

Higher readings have often led investors to expect higher .

If lower than expected

Lower readings have often led investors to expect lower interest rates.

Source: BLS release calendar ↗

OCT 158:30 AM ET

Measures consumer spending at stores, restaurants, and online sellers.

September sales · Census Bureau

If spending accelerates

Stronger sales can signal resilient and support company .

If spending slows

Weaker sales can point to household caution and softer demand.

Source: Census retail schedule ↗

OCT 158:30 AM ET

(PPI)

Tracks prices received by domestic producers before goods and services reach consumers.

September producer prices · BLS

If producer prices rise faster

Faster increases can raise concern about costs reaching consumer prices.

If producer prices ease

Softer readings can reduce concern about moving through supply chains.

Source: BLS release calendar ↗

OCT 158:30 AM ET

Counts new applications for unemployment benefits and offers a weekly check on layoffs.

Weekly labor-market reading · Labor Department

If claims rise sharply

A jump can suggest layoffs are spreading and household income may weaken.

If claims stay low

A low reading can show employers are still holding on to workers.

Source: Labor Department release calendar ↗

OCT 282:00 PM ET

rate decision

The Federal Reserve sets its target for overnight and explains its economic outlook.

Next scheduled policy decision · Federal Reserve

If officials sound more concerned about inflation

Investors may expect interest rates to stay high for longer.

If officials emphasize slower growth

Markets may bring forward expectations for lower borrowing costs.

Source: Federal Reserve meeting calendar ↗

Market Snapshot

S&P 500

10-year Treasury yield

Brent crude oil

Nasdaq Composite

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Expected volatility (VIX)

S&P 500

10-year Treasury yield

Brent crude oil

Nasdaq Composite

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Expected volatility (VIX)

U.S. stocks

Russell 2000

International indices

DAX

Nikkei 225

KOSPI

Rates

2-year Treasury yield

10-year minus 2-year yield spread

30-year fixed mortgage rate

Exchange rates

Euro to dollar

Dollar to yen

Pound to dollar

Commodities

WTI crude oil

Natural gas

Copper

Top Stories

Bank Profits Rise, Risks Linger

Chipmakers Slide, Banks Advance

High Rates Keep Home Sales Subdued

Oil Retreats but Supply Risk Remains

TL;DR Global

IMF Lifts World Growth Outlook

Korean and Japanese Stocks Slide

Visa Gets China Market Opening

Next on TL;DRM

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Retail sales

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Initial jobless claims

Federal Reserve rate decision

(CPI)

(PPI)

rate decision